Ontario is reminding U.S. counterparts how tightly the two economies are bound together, spotlighting roughly $220 billion in Ontario goods that flowed to the United States last year and urging policy stability over protectionism.
The province’s message lands as North America edges toward a mandatory 2026 review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and after a turbulent year of tariffs that rattled manufacturers on both sides of the border.
The $220 billion figure captures only one side of the ledger. Ontario’s own budget documents show the broader relationship is far larger.
Two-way trade in goods between Ontario and the United States topped $493 billion in 2023, underscoring how autos, parts, machinery, agri-food and services move through integrated supply chains that do not stop at the border.
That scale is why the province is pressing for predictability rather than tit-for-tat measures that raise costs and inject uncertainty into investment plans.
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In March, Ontario responded to U.S. duties by adding a 25 percent surcharge to electricity exports to neighboring states, a pointed move that illustrated how quickly trade frictions can spill into essential cross-border networks.
The province framed the surcharge as part of an initial package to defend local jobs and signal resolve, even as it emphasized the need to avoid a spiral of retaliation that would harm consumers and businesses on both sides.
Ottawa has since adjusted its approach, removing a wide range of Canadian counter-tariffs on September 1 while keeping measures in place for sensitive sectors such as steel, aluminum and autos.
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That shift reduced some immediate pressure but left core disputes unresolved ahead of the USMCA review, where all three countries must decide whether to extend the pact for another 16 years and whether to tweak rules that govern everything from automotive content to dispute settlement.
Stability is not a slogan for Ontario, it is shorthand for investment math in plants and equipment that depreciate over years, not quarters.
Automakers weighing retooling for next-generation powertrains, parts makers expanding capacity and food processors adding lines all count on clarity around market access.
Sudden shifts in tariff policy can freeze capex and prompt contingency planning that disperses production rather than deepening it.
The 2026 review therefore looms as both a risk and an opportunity. Clear commitments from Washington, Ottawa and Mexico City to maintain rules-based trade would unlock investment that has been sitting on the sidelines.
Open questions about new content thresholds or sector carve-outs would do the opposite.
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The integration story gives Ontario a strong factual backdrop. U.S. buyers take the vast majority of the province’s merchandise exports, and Ontario is a critical customer for American farmers, miners and manufacturers in dozens of states.
The flow of parts across the border several times before final assembly in vehicles, appliances and machinery is the definition of shared prosperity.
That is why business groups on both sides have warned that escalating tariffs become a tax on their own workers and customers.
A steady policy hand would also help the province pursue its industrial strategy. Ontario has been courting investment across autos, batteries and critical minerals.
Stable access to the U.S. market is central to those plans, because demand curves for electric vehicles, grid storage and advanced manufacturing remain uncertain.
If policy makers keep the guardrails consistent, companies can make longer-dated bets on supply chains that stretch from northern Ontario mines to assembly plants in the Midwest and the Southeast.
The coming months will set the tone. U.S. trade officials have already begun gathering input for the review, while Canada has opened its own consultation process.
Businesses will press negotiators to preserve the agreement’s core while improving implementation. Ontario’s argument is straightforward. The province is not asking for special treatment, it is asking for reliability.
Given the size of the cross-border marketplace and the number of jobs tied to it, predictable rules are the cheapest form of stimulus the region can deliver.
