Canada’s population reached an estimated 41,651,653 on July 1, 2025, rising by only 47,098 people from April 1, a 0.1% increase that marked the weakest second-quarter pace outside the 2020 pandemic quarter since comparable records began in 1946, according to a new release from Statistics Canada.
The agency said growth has cooled sharply from 2022 and 2023 when temporary migration swelled headcounts at a historic clip.
The latest figures are available in The Daily and its accompanying data tables, which detail changes by immigration category and region.
The year ended July 1, 2025, saw the population increase by 389,324 people, or 0.9% that compares with a 3.0% surge in the prior 12-month period and reflects the fact that more than half of last year’s gains occurred in the third quarter of 2024 before the number of non-permanent residents began to decline.
In the latest quarter, international migration accounted for 33,694 people, or 71.5% of total growth, down from 95.3% a year earlier. Natural increase added 13,404, Statistics Canada data show.
Economic and Market Impact
Fewer non-permanent residents means less immediate pressure on rentals, transit, and entry-level services, segments that saw outsized demand during the recent migration wave.
A slower population baseline can temper top-line growth in consumer spending and may cool service inflation at the margin. It can also narrow the pool of available workers, especially in sectors that drew heavily from temporary visas, which could keep wage pressures sticky.
Provincial Divergences
Alberta continued to outpace the country with a 0.4% quarterly gain to 5,029,346, supported by inflows from other provinces and still-strong migration.
Ontario’s population was essentially flat at 16,258,260 in the quarter, and the province’s estimated number of non-permanent residents fell 2.6% to 1,390,350.
British Columbia was also flat at 5,697,536, with its non-permanent resident count down 2.8% to 504,363. Quebec rose 0.2% to 9,058,297 and saw a modest quarterly increase in its stock of non-permanent residents.
These divergences help explain why rent and wage dynamics can vary widely across markets and why provincial fiscal updates may sketch different revenue paths this fall.
Demographics and Longer-Term Trends
The aging trend is intact, with the share of seniors rising across most provinces and median ages edging higher, which can weigh on labor supply over time, one offset came from births.
Canada recorded 365,737 live births in 2024, up 3.7% from 2023, a small pickup that could support natural increase if sustained. Those health-system and family-formation data arrive with a lag but are relevant for longer-term planning in housing, childcare, and education.
Canada’s population is still growing, but the impulse is smaller and coming more from permanent immigrants than from temporary entrants.
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Housing-related equities, rental REITs, consumer staples, and regional banks with outsized exposure to fast-growing provinces like Alberta may see a different demand mix than in 2022–2023.
A cooler population trajectory could also make it easier for policymakers to meet inflation targets if shelter and services moderate, though any relief will depend on supply responses and the labor market’s ability to absorb fewer temporary workers without creating bottlenecks.
