Layoff fears rise as the condo pipeline freezes and the next 12 to 18 months are flagged as “scary”

Canada’s condo machine is stalling just as borrowing costs, construction expenses, and risk tolerance converge in the wrong direction.

Developers who raced to lock sites and permits during the low rate era are now pausing or canceling launches as lenders demand more equity, tougher presale thresholds, and clearer paths to profitability.

Sales centers that once hummed on weekends are quiet that silence is rippling into trades, where contractors say hours are being trimmed and crews rotated as pipelines thin.

Projects that broke ground last year will carry construction employment for a while, but the next wave is at risk.

If few new towers reach financing close in the coming quarters, framing, electrical, and finishing work dry up later that is why site superintendents and union stewards describe the next 12 to 18 months as scary.

In a business that lives on continuity, a gap between completions and fresh starts almost always shows up as layoffs.

Land bought at 2021 valuations, combined with higher carrying costs and pricier materials, leaves less room for error.

Lenders are choosier, often requiring deeper deposits and stronger presale absorption before advancing construction loans.

Demand has cooled at current price points. Investors who once backstopped launches with bulk purchases are cautious, and end users are waiting for clearer signals on mortgage rates.

Ottawa’s incentive mix is evolving, yet even supporters concede that immediate relief to new build affordability is limited. Our recent coverage of why Carney’s housing GST rebate may not help buyers much underscores a key constraint.

The United States’ new tariffs on lumber and furniture complicate supply chains that feed Canadian projects and show how quickly input prices can jump. Even small swings in finishing packages can tip a marginal tower from viable to shelved.

Ambitious housing targets require a steady cadence of private capital taking risk now for units delivered in 3 to 5 years. When developers perceive policy uncertainty or moving goalposts on fees and approvals, they slow decisions.

Internal assessments have already flagged a deteriorating backdrop, including internal documents that point to a grim outlook for Canada’s housing crisis.