The S&P/TSX Composite has climbed more than 20% in 2025 and set a string of record closes through early October, while the Nasdaq 100’s year to date gain sits in the mid teens.
Canada’s benchmark is tilted to energy and materials, and that has mattered in a year when metals surged and oil patch dealmaking stayed busy.
Materials are up roughly 50% this year as bullion sprinted to fresh highs and copper rode a supply tight narrative into autumn. Gold even vaulted above $4,000 an ounce this week before backing off, a reminder that momentum cuts both ways.
Those swings have lifted index heavyweights and small cap explorers alike, and they have made Canada’s resource tilt a tailwind rather than a drag.
Energy’s contribution has been uneven alongside softer crude prices, but consolidation has supported sentiment and balance sheets.
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The latest example is the higher bid for MEG Energy from Cenovus, a move that keeps attention on oil sands cash flows and capital return math even as commodity screens flicker.
Investors have also cheered a weaker Canadian dollar at times, which fattens exporters’ revenues when metals are priced in U.S. dollars.
A run of TSX records through September and early October underscores the point. The index repeatedly cleared psychological round numbers, then regrouped when metals cooled, then pushed again as buyers leaned into market breadth.
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This pattern has played out across large caps and mid caps, with technology providing assists on days when Shopify and chip adjacent names rallied.
The mix has translated into steadier relative performance than Wall Street’s AI-centric trade, which remains sensitive to earnings revisions and policy shocks.
The Bank of Canada’s pivot toward easier policy, plus a weaker currency, helped the multiple expand without smothering the earnings story.
Meanwhile, in the United States, tariff threats whipsawed tech and semiconductors on Friday, clipping the Nasdaq’s week and carving into a summer rally that had taken the gauge to records.
If gold and copper stay supported by central bank buying, project bottlenecks, and supply constraints, Canada’s materials complex can remain a leadership group.
If energy M&A stays constructive and capital discipline holds, free cash flow and dividends can buffer volatility.
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It does mean the index’s sector mix has been working in 2025 in a way that the Nasdaq’s narrow tech concentration has not.
Ottawa’s push to accelerate permits highlights what Ottawa sees in copper and why it wants more of it in the ground.
Flows and product launches, like when Sprott launches an active metals strategy, track how investors are lining up behind the trade. Big-ticket deals, including the Teck and Anglo merger, keep Canada central to the copper map.
Day to day, breadth and positioning matter; recall when the TSX stalls near a record and waits for the next macro catalyst.
South of the border, the AI wave still dominates, as covered when the Nasdaq hits new all-time high, but it has been a bumpier ride this fall.
