Canada’s approach to temporary migration is changing in real time, and the data now show how individuals move through the system from one year to the next.
A new Statistics Canada analysis of administrative records follows cohorts of people who held a valid work or study permit on December 31 and traces what happened over the following three years.
The study arrives as the federal government aims to bring the share of temporary residents down to 5% of the population by the end of 2026, while opening more pathways to permanent residence for those already in the country.
The report finds that for the most recent pre-cap cohort, the 2022 stock of permit holders, 79% still had valid temporary status one year later.
That is the highest first-year retention across the 2018 to 2022 cohorts and reflects a hot post-pandemic labor market.
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By contrast, the 2020 cohort saw the lowest first-year retention as many transitioned to permanent residence during travel restrictions that shifted selection toward people already in Canada.
By the third year, the share of any cohort that still held temporary status settled in a narrow band around the high 30s, underscoring how quickly temporary flows churn.
What counts as “staying” also changes over time. In the first year after the snapshot, many permit holders were still on the original document.
As year three approached, continued presence as a temporary resident was driven more by new permits rather than the original one.
In other words, the composition of the temporary population can look stable at a glance even as individuals cycle through different permit types.
Study permit holders posted the highest rates of continued temporary status in the first year, consistent with students remaining enrolled or moving into the post-graduation work stream.
Holders under the International Mobility Program were more likely to become permanent residents over three years than other groups across earlier cohorts.
That mix matters for employers in sectors that rely on specific permit categories and for colleges that depend on tuition from international students.
The study also flags how caps and issuance trends do not immediately translate into smaller year-end counts.
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From 2023 to 2024, the number of newly issued study permits, including extensions, fell by nearly a quarter. Yet the stock of people holding study permits at year end declined only modestly, by about 4%.
Over the same period, new work permits dipped slightly, but the stock of work permit holders rose by close to a fifth.
The gap reflects how status extensions and transitions can offset lower inflows, at least in the short run.
Canada’s near-term labor supply, especially in entry-level and service roles, is shaped not just by how many new permits are issued but by how long current permit holders remain in status or convert to permanent residence.
Universities, private colleges, landlords, and retailers will feel these dynamics as study-permit cohorts roll through graduation seasons and into the job market.
The federal plan to shrink the temporary resident share puts more weight on permanent residence transitions and stricter criteria for new permits, which could gradually cool demand for rental housing tied to student hubs and shift hiring toward employers with the capacity to support permanent pathways.
The study is limited to residency status as recorded on permits and does not capture whether individuals were physically present in Canada at a given point.
Even so, it offers a clearer view of how temporary status evolves.
It also sets a baseline for judging the effects of policy changes that took hold in 2024 and 2025, including tighter study-permit issuance and adjustments to post-graduation work rules.
The coming year will show whether tougher entry and renewal rules outpace conversions to permanent residence, or whether transitions keep the stock of temporary residents elevated longer than caps alone would suggest.
Read the analysis here: Statistics Canada, Economic and Social Reports, “Tracking yearly shifts in residency status among Canada’s work and study permit holders.”
