Brazil is preparing for fresh friction with its largest hemispheric partner after the country’s Supreme Court convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro on Sept. 11 and sentenced him to 27 years in prison.
The decision set off a fast political reaction in Washington, where President Donald Trump said he was surprised by the ruling and his administration signaled a possible response.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on X that the United States would “respond accordingly to this witch hunt,” language that prompted an immediate rebuke from Brazil’s Foreign Ministry.
Any new steps would add to measures the administration has already taken.
In late July, the White House invoked national emergency powers to slap broad new tariffs on Brazilian imports, citing alleged threats to U.S. free expression and the treatment of Bolsonaro.
The same week, the Treasury Department used Global Magnitsky authorities to sanction Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who has overseen high-profile cases involving Bolsonaro and his allies.
The conviction itself was historic, marking the first time a former Brazilian president has been found guilty of attacking the country’s democratic order.
Four of five justices voted to convict, and the panel imposed a sentence of 27 years and three months. Trump called the outcome “very surprising,” while Rubio’s post hinted at further action.
Brazil’s Foreign Ministry called the comments a threat that would not intimidate the government.
The July order added a 40% ad valorem duty on many Brazilian goods and came alongside a separate announcement of 50% tariffs on most imports, though the administration carved out exceptions, including for a range of civil aircraft parts and some autos.
If Washington widens penalties or layers on new designations, exposure could rise for Brazilian exporters in metals, energy, agriculture, and aerospace supply chains that depend on U.S. buyers, as well as for multinationals with Brazilian manufacturing footprints.
Brasília has struck a defiant posture, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said Brazil will not be cowed by tariff threats and that the country has the sovereign right to adjudicate crimes at home.
Officials say contingency plans are in place to support affected firms and to diversify markets if U.S. barriers bite.
The Foreign Ministry said the judiciary is independent and that the case against Bolsonaro followed due process.
Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest, is expected to appeal. The ruling was not unanimous, with Justice Luiz Fux voting to acquit and questioning the court’s jurisdiction.
That dissent provides a potential avenue for legal challenges that could keep the case alive well into Brazil’s 2026 election season, even though Bolsonaro is already barred from running until 2030.
What comes next will depend on Washington’s choices and Brasília’s response. Rubio did not detail the prospective steps, but the administration has tools ranging from additional Global Magnitsky designations against Brazilian officials to tighter trade restrictions.
Bolsonaro’s son, Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, told Reuters he expects added U.S. sanctions against officials who backed the conviction, underscoring how the legal saga has become a diplomatic flashpoint.
For North American investors with exposure to Brazilian equities and bonds, the key risks are a drag on export volumes, possible countersanctions, and a chill on cross-border investment if the dispute escalates.
For corporates, supply chain managers should revisit tariff assumptions on Brazilian inputs and map alternatives in case exemptions narrow.
Markets have weathered earlier rounds of U.S. trade actions, but a second wave tied directly to a polarizing criminal case could prove more disruptive than the first.
