Bank of America has lifted its 2026 price target for the metal to $5,000 an ounce, arguing that persistent geopolitical risk, widening fiscal deficits, and an easier Federal Reserve path could sustain safe-haven demand well into next year.
The bank’s commodities team expects gold to average roughly $4,400 in 2026 and said silver could approach $65, moving in tandem with bullion’s momentum.
The call lands as spot prices trade near recent records after vaulting above $4,000 for the first time this month. Bank of America framed its upgrade around investment flows.
The strategists said in a client note that a durable pickup in investor demand could carry prices to the new target, even if the market digests pockets of profit taking along the way.
They also acknowledged that bullion’s near term path may be choppy if yields back up or the dollar stabilizes, but said the balance of risks points to higher levels into 2026.
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The bank cited a live mix of geopolitical flashpoints, including heightened U.S.-China trade tensions, as well as ongoing fiscal strain across major economies.
Those forces, paired with growing expectations that the Fed will deliver additional rate cuts, have reinforced the appeal of neutral reserve assets.
Real rates have eased from their highs, central banks continue to diversify reserves, and households in key markets have used dips to add metal that combination, the analysts argue, is hard to fade while policy and politics remain unsettled.
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Other global banks have also lifted their targets in recent days, and desk chatter now frames $5,000 by 2026 as plausible if policy and politics break the wrong way.
A faster disinflation path, firmer growth, or a decisive easing of trade frictions could cool safe-haven flows and cap rallies in both bullion and silver.
At $5,000 gold, balance sheets across senior producers and royalty firms would benefit from wider margins, though cost inflation in labor, energy, and consumables could dilute the lift.
Project pipelines that looked marginal two years ago are being re-ranked, and M&A talk is perking up in both New York and Toronto as acquirers consider locking in reserves while financing is still accessible.
The metal has tracked the gold move but still trades at a discount to historical gold-silver ratios, leaving room for catch-up if solar and electronics orders remain firm. Here too, volatility cuts both ways.
A cooling in global manufacturing would challenge the $65 marker even if bullion keeps climbing on policy or geopolitical.
