A risk-on tone has crept back into Canadian equities, and two names show it clearly. Fashion retailer Aritzia has climbed about 60% year to date, while electronics manufacturer Celestica has surged near 160% over the same stretch, a rally that has helped frame the mood on Bay Street ahead of a dense run of economic and earnings catalysts.
The Toronto market has flirted with records in recent weeks, a pattern that mirrors the summer’s global risk appetite and moments when the TSX stalls near a record as traders wait for fresh data.
The macro backdrop has turned more supportive for risk. The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate to 2.50% on Sept. 17 and signaled readiness to respond again if the outlook softens, a stance that relieved some pressure on growth-focused equities and rate sensitive retailers.
The shift followed months of choppy trading and fits of leadership rotation. Lower short rates tend to ease financial conditions, lift discounted cash flow valuations, and brighten earnings visibility for companies investing heavily in expansion.
The central bank’s next decision arrives later this month, and traders will parse it for any sign that borrowing costs could move lower into year end.
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Aritzia’s advance has been driven by operational momentum and anticipation around fresh results.
The Vancouver-based retailer has expanded aggressively in the United States and leaned into marquee product lines that have resonated with younger shoppers, turning store openings and renovated flagships into meaningful traffic drivers.
Investors have also been focused on gross margin recovery after a period of inventory normalization. Management is due to report fiscal second quarter results after markets close on Oct. 9, a timing that has kept options activity and short-term positioning lively around the stock.
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As that date approached, coverage across market outlets consistently flagged a year-to-date gain in the high 50s to about 60 percent, with several previews highlighting firm sales trends and improved merchandising.
The setup adds an earnings test to a powerful run, and it will clarify the path for holiday-quarter inventory, markdown discipline, and the cadence of U.S. store growth.
Celestica’s rally has been even more dramatic. The Toronto-based manufacturer sits at the intersection of several capital spending cycles, including hyperscale data centers, networking upgrades, and aerospace programs.
That mix has translated into accelerating revenue and solid margin execution through 2025, with July-quarter results showing double digit growth and another step up in profit.
The stock’s year-to-date gain has frequently printed in a 150 to 170% band in recent market notes, reflecting both fundamental beats and technical sponsorship from momentum strategies.
The move has left valuation richer than a year ago, yet the company’s backlog, mix shift toward higher value programs, and cash generation trends have reinforced the bull case.
For a market that has rotated quickly between defensives and cyclicals, Celestica has offered a growth-through-the-cycle narrative that money managers have been willing to pay for.
The broader Canadian tape has been supportive, though not without pullbacks.
Commodity strength has offered a floor at times, while heavyweights in technology and industrials have carried leadership on days when risk appetite has widened.
Episodes of volatility still surface around jobs data, U.S. inflation releases, and currency swings, which can pressure importers and retailers.
Earlier this week, for instance, a retreat followed a multi session rally as traders looked to lock in gains and reposition ahead of central bank communications. Even so, breadth has improved versus early summer, and sector rotation has looked more constructive than defensive.
